Strait of Hormuz Shipping Traffic Falls Further as Saudi Oil Flows Rise

Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen further, with Reuters reporting that around a dozen commodity vessels transited the waterway over the weekend, down from 35 a week earlier. The reporting counts only ships that keep their automatic identification system (AIS) transponders on, so the figures exclude vessels that switch off tracking to avoid detection and may understate total movements.

An earlier Reuters note referencing Kpler data put the number even lower on one day, showing four tankers passing the strait versus a 10-day moving average of 16. Kpler also reported that 13 very large crude carriers left the strait in the week to September 13, signaling constrained but ongoing flows.

Despite signs of tightened movement in the chokepoint, JP Morgan said in a recent client note that Middle East oil flows have held up better than expected. The bank highlighted a significant shift led by Saudi Arabia, which has exported crude through Hormuz at about 2.9 million barrels per day on average over the past six days, according to JP Morgan.

Saudi operations route oil by pipeline to the Ras Tanurah terminal on the Persian Gulf, where smaller vessels carry it to the Gulf of Oman for transshipment onto larger tankers. At the same time, exports from the Red Sea port of Yanbu — which became a primary Saudi outlet after prior disruptions in Hormuz — have been disrupted by multiple Houthi attacks in recent days, including strikes on Yanbu and targets in Riyadh.

The reporting underscores contrasting developments: an overall decline in observable transits through Hormuz alongside adaptive shipping practices and alternative export flows that have helped sustain Saudi crude shipments, even as regional hostilities continue to affect specific ports and routes.