Sweden heads to the polls: What’s at stake in the knife-edge election?

Swedish voters go to the polls on Sunday in an election described as a knife-edge contest between a centre-left coalition led by Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson and the incumbent right-wing government under Moderate Party leader and Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. The Sweden Democrats, a party with roots in neo‑Nazi movements that was long a political pariah, has become the dominant force on the right and has propped up the government from outside since a 2022 agreement; Kristersson is seeking to bring it formally into government.

Polls released by Ipsos, Demoskop and Indikator show the four-party left bloc polling between about 49.3% and 50.8%, while surveys published by Swedish Radio, Aftonbladet and Dagens Nyheter put support for the government and the Sweden Democrats at roughly 47.6%–49%. The race has tightened in recent weeks, leaving the balance of power dependent on coalition deals rather than a single-party majority—consistent with Sweden’s tradition of coalition governance and minority administrations.

Immigration is a defining issue in this vote. The 2015 refugee wave — which saw an estimated 1.3 million asylum seekers arrive in Europe and about 163,000 in Sweden — vaulted migration to the top of the public agenda; a SOM survey found it became the most important issue for 53% of voters. Successive governments have tightened residency and citizenship rules, introduced incentives for some migrants to return (around $36,000 offered to those with permits), and undertaken stricter repatriation measures that produced controversy when deportation orders were issued to teenagers raised in Sweden; those orders were suspended in March and reforms followed in June. Both the Sweden Democrats and elements of the centre‑left have adopted more restrictive stances than in the past, shifting debate toward integration policy and implementation.

On foreign policy, Sweden’s security posture was reshaped by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and culminated in its decision to join NATO in 2024; since 2022 Sweden has provided about $16.4 billion in military and civilian support to Ukraine. Views on Israel and Palestine are more divisive: the current government has rejected characterising Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide and has not joined South Africa’s ICJ case, while pushing for EU sanctions on extremist settlers and trade measures on settlement goods. The Sweden Democrats advocate an even more pro‑Israel line—calling to move the Swedish embassy to Jerusalem, end aid to Palestinians and, in the words of leader Jimmie Åkesson, withdraw Sweden’s recognition of Palestine if it were up to him.

Beyond migration and foreign policy, voters are weighing crime, the economy and the broader question of whether the far right will enter government. Commentators note that some of the government’s tougher migration measures appeared to overreach and sparked public controversy, underlining how contentious and electorally decisive these policy debates have become. With turnout driven in part by advance voting that began on August 26 and all polling stations open for the official election day, the final balance will hinge on narrow margins and subsequent coalition negotiations.