Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in Texas Senate race poll
A Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll released Friday shows Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by five points, 49% to 44%, with 3% undecided. The survey of 1,007 likely voters was conducted Sept. 19-22 and has a margin of error of ±3.6 percentage points.
Why It Matters
The poll continues a recent trend of tight results in a race that has traditionally favored Republicans and follows similar findings from Marist and local polls; national Republican groups have invested heavily in the contest as control of the U.S. Senate is at stake. These dynamics have led the Cook Political Report to classify the seat as a toss-up.
Key Facts
- Pollster: Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR)
- Top-line result: James Talarico 49%, Ken Paxton 44%, Undecided 3%
- Previous TPOR month: Talarico led 48% to 42% (one month earlier)
- Survey dates: Sept. 19-22, 2026
- Sample size: 1,007 respondents
A TPOR survey released Friday shows Democratic challenger James Talarico leading Republican incumbent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton by five percentage points in the states U.S. Senate race, with Talarico at 49% and Paxton at 44% while 3% of respondents said they were undecided. The poll, the second in a monthly TPOR series, follows a similar finding last month when Talarico led by six points, 48% to 42%.
The TPOR results break down along demographic lines: independent voters favored Talarico by 58% to 26%, while Paxton led among white voters and those aged 55 and older. Talarico led Latino and Black voters, voters under 55, college-educated voters, and both men and women, according to the poll.
On measures of approval and candidate attributes, both Talarico and Paxton registered 21% general approval. The poll reported 17% of respondents called Talarico a "champion of ordinary people," 15% cited his honesty and character, and 10% said they wanted a new leader. For Paxton, 23% of respondents said they supported him because they disliked Talarico, 17% cited party loyalty, and 14% pointed to his record in office.
The survey also asked about issue handling: Talarico led on addressing the cost of living and improving Texans' financial situations, 49% to 42% (6% undecided), and on managing data centers and artificial intelligence, 45% to 40% (11% undecided). The TPOR survey was conducted Sept. 19-22 with 1,007 respondents and reports a margin of error of ±3.6 percentage points.
The TPOR findings align with other recent polls showing Talarico ahead, including a Marist survey that had Talarico at 50% and Paxton at 44%, and an NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo poll showing Talarico 46% to Paxtons 43%. The race has drawn significant outside spending from Republican groups aiming to hold the seat; a recent Federal Election Commission filing shows MAGA Inc., a super PAC aligned with former President Trump, contributed $5 million to the contest. The Cook Political Report currently classifies the race as a toss-up.
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