The cost of Iran’s regional leverage

The diplomatic thaw initiated by a 2023 Beijing-mediated agreement between Tehran and Riyadh had aimed to create room for rivalry to be managed without recurring direct escalation. That limited détente came under pressure earlier in the year when Iranian-linked strikes prompted Saudi Arabia to expel Iran’s military attache and other embassy staff. Recent Houthi operations and the postponement of planned talks in Oman have further strained the fragile framework that had enabled limited cooperation. On September 8, the Houthis carried out a coordinated wave of drone and ballistic missile strikes targeting several Saudi cities and strategic sites, including Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan and Najran. The timing of those strikes, alongside renewed fighting near Bab al-Mandeb, marked a shift from a conflict largely confined within Yemen’s borders to one with direct consequences for Gulf security and maritime routes. The campaign in Yemen has also taken on a distinctly strategic dimension. Houthi advances, including the seizure of Mocha and nearby islands, and the displacement of tens of thousands of people — with some refugees reaching Djibouti — underscore how control of western Yemeni coastline and the approaches to Bab al-Mandeb now factor into broader regional calculations. At the same time, Tehran’s restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since February have pushed greater importance onto western export routes, linking pressure in both eastern and western maritime theaters. Those converging pressures complicated diplomacy. A planned meeting in Salalah, Oman, intended to negotiate practical maritime security and navigation arrangements around the Strait of Hormuz was postponed after Bahrain indicated it would not participate and Oman concluded conditions were not conducive to productive talks. Iran acknowledged the delay amid reports of disagreements over aspects of the proposed framework. For Saudi Arabia, negotiating maritime arrangements with Tehran while facing missile and drone strikes from an Iran-aligned actor created a difficult political contradiction. The episode highlights a central strategic dilemma: whether Iran can continue to derive leverage from a regional network capable of exerting pressure — and thereby influence maritime chokepoints — without undoing the limited diplomatic gains that reduced the risk of direct regional escalation. With simultaneous pressure around Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, two separate maritime arenas risk becoming interconnected channels of strategic leverage, narrowing the political space for confidence-building measures and formal negotiations.