The data proves it: Bitcoin doesn't care about rising bond yields over long-term

CoinDesk’s analysis finds only a near-zero statistical link between bitcoin and government bond yields over multiple horizons. Short-term correlation between daily bitcoin returns and moves in the U.S. 10-year yield was roughly −0.18 over the past 90 days, with 180-day and one-year correlations around −0.06 and −0.03 respectively, indicating little consistent co-movement. The pattern holds for other nations’ yields as well. That lack of steady correlation has coincided with bitcoin’s strong multi-year performance. CoinDesk notes bitcoin is up about 191% since 2021 and reached a record near $126,000 in October, even as 10-year yields rose several hundred basis points across advanced economies. The article cites increases of more than 500 basis points in the U.K. and France and rises of over 400 basis points in the U.S., Australia, Germany and Italy over the same period. Still, the piece highlights that volatility in bond markets — not just higher yield levels — can have immediate effects on bitcoin. A 21% jump in the MOVE Index, which measures expected volatility in U.S. Treasuries, coincided with bitcoin’s slide from about $87,200 to $83,500. CoinDesk and market commentators argue that spikes in Treasury turbulence can tighten financial conditions, raise borrowing costs, and trigger broader risk aversion that pressures risk assets. Macro fundamentals also played a role in the recent move in yields. Strong U.S. business-activity data (S&P Global’s flash U.S. Composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August) reinforced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes after a 25 basis-point increase in September. The report notes that higher yields were felt beyond the U.S., with France and the U.K. seeing significant moves as markets also punished countries perceived as fiscally vulnerable. CoinDesk further points to divergent fiscal positions across countries as part of the backdrop: Japan’s debt-to-GDP was above 200% at the end of 2025, the U.S. at 123.8%, France 115%, the U.K. 102% and China about 100%, while Switzerland’s federal debt was around 16% of GDP. Those differences help explain why yield dynamics and currency haven flows have varied by jurisdiction, even as bitcoin’s long-term price path showed no obvious sensitivity to rising sovereign yields.