U.S. Dams Could Unlock 15.2 Terawatt-Hours of Untapped Hydropower
Researchers at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Idaho National Laboratory report that retrofitting existing non-powered dams in the United States could yield about 15.2 terawatt-hours of additional electricity annually—roughly enough for 1.4 million homes. The estimate comes from HydroGenerate, a new modeling tool that combines USGS and lab data with turbine and hydraulic inputs to assess site-by-site hydropower potential.
Why It Matters
Unlocking this dormant hydropower capacity could deliver low-emission generation to regions currently underserved by conventional hydropower, at lower cost than building new large projects, and dovetails with federal efforts to simplify permitting and accelerate deployment.
Key Facts
- Projected additional annual generation: 15.2 terawatt-hours
- Estimated homes powered: More than 1.4 million
- Lead institutions: Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Idaho National Laboratory
- Modeling software: HydroGenerate
- Data sources used in model: U.S. Geological Survey water-flow data and Oak Ridge datasets, plus turbine performance curves and hydraulic head
A new analysis from Oak Ridge National Laboratory and Idaho National Laboratory finds that retrofitting select existing U.S. dams not now equipped for power could add about 15.2 terawatt-hours of electricity per year, an amount the study equates to powering more than 1.4 million households. The assessment used HydroGenerate, a modeling tool developed at Idaho National Laboratory that integrates multiple hydrologic and engineering data streams to estimate site-specific output.
HydroGenerate combines USGS streamflow records and Oak Ridge datasets with turbine performance curves and hydraulic-head information, allowing the model to factor in optimal turbine sizing, seasonal flow variation, and the physical constraints of individual dam structures. The researchers built operational limits into the analysis—recognizing that many dams serve purposes such as flood control or navigation that restrict how and when generation can occur—to produce a more realistic estimate of retrofit potential.
The study finds that most candidate sites are concentrated in the Great Lakes basin and the upper Mississippi River region, and that 86 percent of identified dams are federal facilities. Today only about 3 percent of U.S. dams produce power; adding the retrofitted capacity would broaden the geographic footprint of hydropower beyond the current top-producing states (in 2025: Washington 27%, California 13%, Oregon 10%, New York 6%, Alabama 4%). The authors also note retrofits can be considerably cheaper than new conventional hydropower projects while delivering emissions-free generation.
The research aligns with recent federal support for hydropower modernization. The Department of Energy’s Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office awarded $5.5 million to 11 national laboratory projects intended to speed and simplify hydropower licensing. H2O leadership framed the work as helping maintain reliable hydropower operations and lowering permitting and relicensing costs; industry representatives pointed to rare bipartisan backing in Congress and warned that a slow licensing process could imperil roughly 16 gigawatts of hydropower entering relicensing over the next decade.
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