Venezuela Oil Output Could Hit 1.8 Million Bpd By 2030, Rystad Says

Rystad Energy projects that Venezuelan crude production could reach about 1.6 million bpd by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030 if investment, drilling capacity and oilfield services scale to match needs. The consultancy attributes this potential recovery to a notably broader set of international operators re-engaging with the country, including established majors expanding their roles and new independent entrants operating under revised contractual frameworks. Recent deals and re-entries cited by Rystad include Chevron adding Carabobo-1 and Carabobo-2-Sur-A and presenting a plan for more than $7 billion of investment over five years; Eni taking exclusive operatorship of Junin 5 on a 25-year production participation contract; Repsol regaining control at Petroquiriquire; and Shell returning through redevelopment agreements for Carito and Pirital. New or expanding entrants listed include GeoPark, Hunt Oil, Fluxus Oil, Gas & Energy and North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), which has expanded coverage across 17 producing and development areas. Rystad warns that operational constraints will strongly condition any rebound. Baker Hughes reported only two active drilling rigs in Venezuela as of August, while Venezuela's Hydrocarbons Ministry has a target near 93 rigs by 2028. Rystad estimates Venezuelan activity would need to rise to roughly 50 rigs by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030 to support the modeled production trajectory. The oilfield services supply chain is beginning to rebuild—SLB has around 15 rigs in Venezuela that could potentially be reactivated within a year—but a significant scale-up of services and equipment would be required. Near-term growth is expected to come from brownfield work: field rehabilitation, well reactivations and infill drilling across assets such as NABEP’s Lake Maracaibo portfolio, Chevron’s Petropiar and Petroboscan, Eni’s Corocoro and GeoPark’s Bare block. NABEP’s production participation contracts have already shown gains, with combined output from its former Petrozamora-linked assets rising from about 90,000 bpd at end-2024 to nearly 200,000 bpd at the time of Rystad’s report. Rystad says greenfield-led volumes—anchored by projects such as Chevron’s Ayacucho 8, Eni’s Junin 5 and NABEP’s Orinoco blocks—would underpin further growth into the 2030s. The consultancy notes additional upside potential as investor interest broadens, but emphasizes the outcome depends on actual capital deployment and Venezuela’s ability to rebuild drilling, services and infrastructure capacity.