Washington Needs This LNG Deal More Than Beijing Does

Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s September 24 visit to Washington opens discussions that may include reopening a direct liquefied natural gas trade halted by a 15% Chinese tariff imposed in February 2025. That tariff effectively cut recorded U.S. LNG shipments to China from dozens of vessels in 2024 to none in 2025, as buyers avoided the levy by reselling contracted U.S. cargoes into Europe and Asia instead of delivering them domestically. The interruption coincided with a major shock to global LNG supply when Iranian missiles damaged Qatar’s Ras Laffan complex in March, destroying two of 14 production trains and eliminating roughly 17% of Qatar’s export capacity. China absorbed much of the resulting market stress but sourced the additional volumes primarily from Australia, Southeast Asia, Russia and Canada; U.S. cargoes comprised only 0.2% of China’s imports from January through July, per Banchero Costa data cited in the reporting. On September 14, China Gas Holdings signed a 20-year purchase agreement with Venture Global for 500,000 metric tons per year beginning in 2030. While Washington views the deal as a potential signal of tariff easing, the contract contains no tariff provisions and deliveries begin five years from now—leaving ample time for Beijing to alter its tariff stance or for buyers to continue redirecting U.S. cargoes abroad as they have since 2025. The volume committed represents well under 1% of China’s 2025 import total and sits against roughly 25 million tonnes a year of U.S. LNG offtake already contracted by Chinese firms under prior long-term deals. Market forecasts and structural shifts complicate the commercial upside of any tariff rollback. Major analysts—S&P Global, Wood Mackenzie and JPMorgan—have trimmed China’s LNG demand outlook for the early 2030s by 14–22 million tonnes, and China’s 2025 import level was a three-year low amid a push toward piped gas and renewables. Meanwhile, U.S. Gulf Coast developers continue to advance capacity: Reuters estimates about 24.5 million tonnes per year of Gulf Coast projects under construction lack long-term buyers, and some projects have proceeded in part based on Chinese purchase commitments signed earlier. Any bilateral package discussed in Washington ahead of the summit reportedly would reduce tariffs on about $30 billion of each country’s exports, including LNG. If implemented, such a move would reintroduce U.S. cargoes into a Chinese market that has substantially reconfigured its suppliers and demand expectations during the tariff years, altering the commercial calculus for producers, buyers and in-progress U.S. export projects.