What to watch in the US’s New Hampshire and Rhode Island primary elections

New Hampshire and Rhode Island will hold primary elections this week to determine which candidates advance to November's midterm contests, with races emblematic of the larger dynamics shaping the 2024 election cycle. In New Hampshire, the most significant competition centers on selecting Democratic and Republican nominees to replace retiring U.S. Senator Jeanne Shaheen. The Democratic primary features U.S. Representative Chris Pappas as the leading contender, though his polling advantage has narrowed considerably as democratic socialist Karishma Manzur has gained traction among voters, particularly through her advocacy on Palestinian issues and criticism of Pappas's donor connections. Pappas has emphasized support for a two-state solution and increased Gaza aid while stressing the importance of U.S.-Israel relations. Vice President Kamala Harris's recent endorsement of Pappas comes as he seeks to consolidate support among the state's more moderate Democratic voters.

The New Hampshire Republican primary presents a different ideological tension, with frontrunner John Sununu attempting to establish distance from former President Trump while receiving Trump's backing over his main rival Scott Brown. Sununu, who previously held the Senate seat before losing to Shaheen in 2008, faces competition from Brown, a former Massachusetts senator and Trump administration ambassador, along with seven additional candidates. The dynamics reflect ongoing friction between Trump and the Sununu political family, who have been critical of the former president, yet Trump continues to support John Sununu in the contest. Recent polling indicates Sununu holds a slight lead over the Democratic frontrunner in head-to-head matchups, though nearly one-quarter of likely voters remain undecided.

Rhode Island's primary offers a distinct focus on gubernatorial rather than congressional races, with incumbent Democratic Governor Dan McKee facing a formidable challenge from pharmacy executive Helena Foulkes. McKee, who assumed office when his predecessor joined President Biden's administration, narrowly defeated Foulkes in a competitive primary four years earlier. The current rematch has proved considerably more difficult for the incumbent, with recent polling showing him trailing by substantial margins and facing significant fundraising disadvantages. Unlike other competitive midterm primaries centered on ideological or generational divides, McKee's political standing appears closely tied to local concerns, particularly the fallout from a major freeway bridge closure in Providence that has created ongoing congestion and economic disruption since 2023.