Why the Kremlin fears even the ‘managed opposition’ in Russia

In the weeks before Russia’s Duma vote, authorities tightened controls over parties normally tolerated as managed opposition to limit any outlet for protest sentiment at the ballot box. Officials accelerated what observers call "ballot sterilisation," using court rulings, registration revocations and targeted bans to reduce the visibility and participation of parties and candidates that might attract votes from dissatisfied citizens. Yabloko — the only officially registered party openly opposing the war in Ukraine — was initially allowed to register for the election, a move interpreted by the Kremlin as a signal of confidence in the electoral process. Shortly after its registration triggered a surge of public interest and social media support, including endorsements from exiled figures, the Supreme Court revoked its right to field candidates amid accusations it sought to undermine the electoral process. The Communist Party, which routinely aligns with United Russia on major legislation yet retains stronger regional branches and vocal figures, also saw restrictions. Some CPRF candidates were removed from ballots and campaign activities constrained; a prominent example is Nikolay Bondarenko, who was barred from running on the grounds of using "extremist symbols" in a social media post featuring Alexey Navalny. These steps were taken despite the fact that neither Yabloko nor the CPRF would likely have threatened United Russia’s parliamentary majority on past voting patterns. The Kremlin has additional mechanisms to shape outcomes — administrative pressure, expanded e-voting, three-day voting and the exclusion of independent monitors — and reportedly set targets such as 50% turnout with 50% of votes for United Russia. Officials lowered the vote-share target from 55% to 50% amid concern about public dissatisfaction. Officials appear to view the current electoral moment as unusually risky because of wider social and economic strains tied to the war in Ukraine. Independent polling cited by the source indicates public anxiety at levels not seen since mass mobilisation was announced in 2022. Kremlin political managers appear to have stepped up micromanagement of the campaign to ensure results that convey unity and broad support for President Vladimir Putin and United Russia, at least until the elections conclude.