Why the world should care about the far right’s rise in Germany
The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has posted strong regional election results this month, winning 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt and over 38% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while the CDU failed to meet the 5% threshold in the latter. Analysts and officials warn the surge could weaken the governing coalition in Berlin and influence Germany's stance on Ukraine, Russia and foreign aid.
Why It Matters
Germany is Europe’s largest economy and a central security partner for Ukraine; a sustained rise of the AfD could erode consensus among mainstream parties and shift German policy on military and financial support to Kyiv as well as relations with Moscow. Those shifts would have wider implications for European unity, energy policy and transatlantic cooperation.
Key Facts
- Saxony-Anhalt result: AfD won 43.8% of the vote on September 6.
- Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania result: AfD took more than 38% in a regional election held two weeks later.
- CDU setback: The Christian Democratic Union failed to cross the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
- National AfD vote share (Feb 2025): AfD received 20.8% of the national vote in the February 2025 general election.
- Berlin by-election: Left-wing party Die Linke won 25.3% in a separate Berlin by-election.
Two recent regional elections in Germany have delivered major gains for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a party whose rise analysts say is reshaping the country’s political landscape. In Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 the AfD secured 43.8% of the vote, and two weeks later it returned over 38% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The CDU’s failure to clear the 5% threshold in Mecklenburg has intensified concern within mainstream ranks.
Observers argue the AfD’s platform could produce tangible effects on German foreign policy, especially toward Ukraine. The party advocates ending military and financial assistance to Kyiv, opposing EU and NATO accession for Ukraine, and restoring closer ties with Russia. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov publicly welcomed the AfD’s approach, framing it as aligned with Moscow’s interests.
Analysts say those positions could complicate Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s ability to sustain strong German support for Ukraine. While most other parties have ruled out formal cooperation with the AfD—making it difficult for the party to govern even where it is strongest—its electoral success is increasing political pressure on the governing coalition. Experts warn this may reduce Berlin’s willingness to pursue high-profile gestures of support, even if official backing continues at some level.
The AfD also promotes an inward-looking economic agenda, prioritising spending for Germans and opposing foreign aid. At the same time, Germany received a more optimistic economic forecast from Handelsblatt, which raised its growth projection for 2026 to 1.3%. Energy and economic ties with Russia remain a live political issue: Europe banned Russian oil in 2023 and plans to stop importing Russian gas by the end of 2027, but Moscow has argued these choices hurt German competitiveness.
Though a national election is not due until early 2029 and most parties spurn collaboration with the AfD, the party’s gains have altered the political equilibrium. Commentators see weakened consensus among mainstream parties and increased political volatility in forthcoming regional elections, risks that could reverberate across European security and economic policy debates.
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