Will Brazil’s Lula halt the right-wing wave sweeping Latin America?

Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday pairs incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, with polls indicating a close contest and the prospect of an October 25 run-off if neither candidate secures an outright majority. Lula, an 80-year-old veteran of Brazilian politics and the Workers’ Party, is seeking to preserve policies he credits with reducing poverty and strengthening democratic institutions since the end of military rule. He returned to the presidency in 2023 and has emphasized Brazil’s ties with developing nations and membership in BRICS.

Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is campaigning as the heir to his father’s political base and is running on a platform of tough crime measures, fiscal restraint including a proposed debt ceiling, and closer cooperation with the Trump administration. He has framed his father’s legal troubles as political persecution and has spoken of returning Jair Bolsonaro to the presidency symbolically.

Polls released around the weekend showed Lula holding a small lead, with a CNT/MDA survey giving him 47.3% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 43.1% and a Datafolha run-off estimate showing a one-point margin. Polls indicate voters prefer Bolsonaro on issues such as inflation, corruption, and crime, while Lula rates better on poverty, inequality, foreign policy and health care.

Observers say the stakes extend beyond Brazil’s borders because the country’s political orientation influences broader regional dynamics. Recent elections in countries including Colombia, Chile and Argentina have favored right-leaning candidates, and analysts note Washington’s renewed hemisphere focus under U.S. President Donald Trump — described by his administration as a modernized “Donroe Doctrine” — has intersected with those shifts. Lula’s ability to hold Brazil on the left would check that trend; a Bolsonaro victory would align the hemisphere more closely with the recent rightward movement.