WTI Whipsaws as Gulf Supply Improves and Middle East Risk Returns

November WTI futures moved erratically this week as two opposing dynamics battled for control of the market. Early in the period traders pushed prices down toward $88.58 after Saudi Arabia reopened an export route and resumed tanker loadings at Yanbu, easing concerns about crude availability through the Gulf. Goldman Sachs estimated that Gulf exports, including unreported 'dark' flows, recovered to roughly 23.3 million barrels per day — a level close to the 2025 average and a meaningful recovery from the disruptions that earlier tightened supplies.

That crude-supply relief, however, did not translate into broad bearish momentum because constraints persisted elsewhere in the fuel complex. Diesel, gasoline and jet-fuel shipments remained tight, while Russia implemented restrictions on diesel exports and China reduced the number of refined-product cargoes it offered to the export market. Those factors left the physical market for refined fuels under pressure and supported prices despite improved crude flows.

Geopolitical developments also reintroduced risk into the tape. Reports on Thursday indicated the United States is deploying a third carrier strike group to the Middle East, a move that injected an escalation premium back into oil markets and helped push the November WTI contract back toward the top of its weekly range.

By 23:23 GMT on Thursday, the November WTI contract was trading at $93.00, up $0.56 for the week after swinging between $88.58 and $96.54. The week’s volatility reflected the tug-of-war between restored Gulf export capacity and ongoing refined-product bottlenecks plus renewed geopolitical uncertainty in the region.