Key takeaways:
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XRP trades over 120% above its realized price, flashing heightened correction risk.
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A rising wedge breakdown on the 4H chart could send XRP toward $1.89 by mid-May.
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Weekly falling wedge pattern and 50-week EMA support suggest a possible 25% recovery to $2.92 by June.
XRP (XRP) price has rebounded by over 40% in the last three weeks to reach over $2.28 on April 29, but it’s still trading over 30% below its local high of $3.39.
Will XRP’s price sustain the recovery or drop further in the coming days?
XRP’s rising wedge flashes selloff risks
XRP is showing signs of a potential breakdown as a rising wedge pattern forms on its 4-hour chart, raising the risk of a sharp short-term correction.
As of April 29, XRP trades around $2.29, hovering near the wedge’s upper resistance. The pattern, defined by converging upward-sloping trendlines, typically signals weakening bullish momentum and a likely trend reversal.
A confirmed breakdown below the wedge’s lower support could push XRP toward $1.89, down about 17% from current levels, by mid-May.
Supporting the bearish outlook is XRP’s relative strength index (RSI), which sits near 60, indicating that it’s approaching overbought territory, which may lead to profit-taking by traders.
XRP realized price is near $1
XRP’s current realized price (aggregated) of $1.02 represents the average acquisition cost of all circulating tokens. It serves as a key indicator of market sentiment, helping to identify periods of overvaluation or undervaluation.
As of April 29, XRP was trading around $2.28, more than 120% above its realized price. Historically, when XRP trades far above its realized price, it tends to reflect speculative euphoria and elevated risk.
In early 2018 and mid 2021, huge divergences between XRP’s spot and realized price preceded sharp corrections toward the realized price target, as shown above. In 2025, the gap between spot and realized price has increased similarly.
If bullish momentum weakens, XRP may face increased selling pressure, potentially retracing toward the realized price level near $1.02, down by over 50% from the current price levels.
XRP falling wedge could save the bulls
XRP is flashing signs of bullish continuation as it holds firmly above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $1.67, a level that acted as resistance throughout the 2022–2024 bear cycle and is now serving as strong support.
Additionally, XRP is forming a classic falling wedge pattern on the week chart, a structure often associated with bullish reversal breakouts.
The tightening price range suggests declining selling pressure, with a potential breakout looming if bulls manage to push price above the wedge’s upper trendline.
Related: XRP futures open interest surges by 32% — Are traders bullish or bearish?
A successful breakout could target the $2.92 level by June, marking a 25% rally from the current price. Supporting this outlook, the RSI has bounced from the midline, indicating a potential return of buying momentum.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
Key takeaways:XRP trades over 120% above its realized price, flashing heightened correction risk.A rising wedge breakdown on the 4H chart could send XRP toward $1.89 by mid-May.Weekly falling wedge pattern and 50-week EMA support suggest a possible 25% recovery to $2.92 by June.XRP (XRP) price has rebounded by over 40% in the last three weeks to reach over $2.28 on April 29, but it’s still trading over 30% below its local high of $3.39.XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingViewWill XRP’s price sustain the recovery or drop further in the coming days?XRP’s rising wedge flashes selloff risksXRP is showing signs of a potential breakdown as a rising wedge pattern forms on its 4-hour chart, raising the risk of a sharp short-term correction.As of April 29, XRP trades around $2.29, hovering near the wedge’s upper resistance. The pattern, defined by converging upward-sloping trendlines, typically signals weakening bullish momentum and a likely trend reversal. XRP/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingViewA confirmed breakdown below the wedge’s lower support could push XRP toward $1.89, down about 17% from current levels, by mid-May.Supporting the bearish outlook is XRP’s relative strength index (RSI), which sits near 60, indicating that it’s approaching overbought territory, which may lead to profit-taking by traders.XRP realized price is near $1 XRP’s current realized price (aggregated) of $1.02 represents the average acquisition cost of all circulating tokens. It serves as a key indicator of market sentiment, helping to identify periods of overvaluation or undervaluation.As of April 29, XRP was trading around $2.28, more than 120% above its realized price. Historically, when XRP trades far above its realized price, it tends to reflect speculative euphoria and elevated risk.XRP realized price aggregated. Source: TradingViewIn early 2018 and mid 2021, huge divergences between XRP’s spot and realized price preceded sharp corrections toward the realized price target, as shown above. In 2025, the gap between spot and realized price has increased similarly.If bullish momentum weakens, XRP may face increased selling pressure, potentially retracing toward the realized price level near $1.02, down by over 50% from the current price levels.XRP falling wedge could save the bulls XRP is flashing signs of bullish continuation as it holds firmly above its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $1.67, a level that acted as resistance throughout the 2022–2024 bear cycle and is now serving as strong support.XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingViewAdditionally, XRP is forming a classic falling wedge pattern on the week chart, a structure often associated with bullish reversal breakouts. The tightening price range suggests declining selling pressure, with a potential breakout looming if bulls manage to push price above the wedge’s upper trendline.Related: XRP futures open interest surges by 32% — Are traders bullish or bearish?A successful breakout could target the $2.92 level by June, marking a 25% rally from the current price. Supporting this outlook, the RSI has bounced from the midline, indicating a potential return of buying momentum.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. will XRP drop further, XRP price analysis, Ripple price analysis, SEC vs Ripple, XRP analysis Cointelegraph.com News
