Bitcoin bull market ‘confirmed’ but $90K presents profit-taking risk: Analysis

Onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant says Bitcoin's bull market is 'confirmed' after price reclaimed its 365-day moving average near $80,500 and other onchain metrics turned bullish. The firm warned that the $88,000–$90,300 area — roughly $90,000 — could trigger intensified profit-taking and act as the next resistance level.

By AI Newsroom· Reviewed by Pranav, Founder & Editor-in-ChiefPublished about 2 hours agoUpdated about 2 hours ago0 views

Bitcoin bull market ‘confirmed’ but $90K presents profit-taking risk: Analysis

Why It Matters

If traders begin realizing gains around $90,000, upward momentum could slow even as broader indicators point to a sustained bull phase; simultaneous large ETF inflows suggest strong demand is supporting the rally. Institutional adoption may also be moderating future cycle volatility, altering risk dynamics for investors and markets alike.

Key Facts

next test/resistance: $88,000–$90,300 cluster (around $90,000)
current spot price (as cited): $86,000
realized price (1–3 months cohort): $64,300
upper profit-taking band: $90,300 (≈40% above realized price)
365-day moving average reclaim level: $80,500

CryptoQuant's latest weekly report says Bitcoin's onchain indicators and technicals now align with a bullish outlook after price moved back above its 365-day moving average near $80,500. The analytics firm described the start of the next bull market as confirmed, noting that valuation and onchain metrics are pointing higher. The report identified the $88,000–$90,300 range as the next likely resistance, driven by a concentration of onchain supply and an 'upper band' of realized-price-based profit margins. With the cohort of coins that last moved onchain between one and three months ago showing an average acquisition price of $64,300, CryptoQuant calculates the upper band at about $90,300 — roughly 40% above that realized price — and said approach to this band historically coincides with stretched trader profit margins and increased selling pressure. The firm characterized such selling as a 'natural pause' inside an uptrend rather than a full trend reversal. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju added that larger market size and growing institutional ownership are likely to dampen future cycle extremes, making tops and bottoms shallower than in prior cycles. The report also highlighted that Bitcoin's market-value-to-realized-value ratio (MVRV) remained above its breakeven level of 1 during the 2026 bear phase, implying the aggregate investor base stayed in profit — a divergence from earlier macro downturns. MVRV has also crossed above its 365-day moving average, an event that previously coincided with ends of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. Supporting the onchain picture, new capital flows into Bitcoin via US spot ETFs were strong at the start of the week: Farside Investors data showed $1.7 billion in net inflows for the first two trading days, including a $999 million single-day inflow — the largest daily total since October 2025, according to the same dataset. CryptoQuant described the path between the current spot price near $86,000 and the identified profit-taking zone as 'largely clear' while warning that $90,000 remains a meaningful hurdle for the rally.