Bitcoin just topped a key long-term moving average. Here's what it might mean

Bitcoin's recent price action pushed it above its 365-day simple moving average on Sept. 22, marking the first time the cryptocurrency has traded above that long-term measure after 310 days beneath it. Altcoin Pro's founders, Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku, said the firm identified five prior occasions in which bitcoin reclaimed the 365-day average following at least 90 days below it; in each case, bitcoin was higher 12 months later, with reported gains ranging from roughly 59% to over 1,400%.

The analysts cautioned that the pattern is not infallible. When Altcoin Pro relaxed the requirement for the prior period below the 365-day line, they found two prior failed breakouts — July 2018 and March 2022 — in which bitcoin declined about 27% and 59% within 90 days, respectively. "This September's move is encouraging, especially after 310 days below the line, but we want to see it hold," Horst said.

Altcoin Pro emphasized that the 200-day moving average is a more important gauge for their outlook. They noted the 200-day average had risen to roughly $70,800 in their calculations and that bitcoin was about 19% above that level before a modest pullback over the cited 36-hour window. Because the 365-day average reacts more slowly to recent price shifts than the 200-day measure, the firm argued the shorter series provided earlier confirmation of trend changes.

The story also referenced a golden cross on Sept. 8, when bitcoin's 50-day average moved above its 200-day average. While golden crosses have produced mixed outcomes historically, Altcoin Pro said this instance looks more constructive because it followed an extended period with prices below the 200-day average (293 days) rather than appearing near a market peak. The analysts identified the next key test as whether the recent small selloff pushes bitcoin back toward the 200-day level and whether that average can hold as support.

The founders reiterated that moving averages are backward-looking indicators based on past prices, so they reflect where bitcoin traded over specified periods rather than forecasting exact future movements. Their longer-term stance on bitcoin remains bullish contingent on prices sustaining levels above the 200-day moving average, but they warned that moving-average crossovers are signals, not guarantees of continued gains.