EIA Raises 2027 U.S. Oil Output Forecast

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its projection for U.S. crude oil output in 2027 to 14.3 million barrels per day, up from 14.2 million bpd in the agency's August outlook and 14.0 million bpd in July. For 2026 the EIA left its forecast unchanged at 13.8 million bpd.

If the 2026 projection holds, it would exceed the 2025 production record of 13.7 million bpd. U.S. output averaged 13.7 million bpd in the first half of this year, a rise of 300,000 bpd, or roughly 2%, compared with the same period a year earlier. The EIA identified the Permian Basin and the U.S. portion of the Gulf of Mexico as the main contributors to that increase.

The agency expects Permian production to average 6.8 million bpd this year, about 3% higher than in 2025. Market conditions have supported higher prices: West Texas Intermediate averaged $84 per barrel through August, up from $65 a year earlier. In that context, producers surveyed by the Dallas Fed reported average breakeven costs of $69 per barrel in the Midland Basin and $63 in the Delaware Basin.

Production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico also rose, adding about 200,000 bpd in the first half of the year — a near-10% increase year over year. Four Gulf projects that started producing over the past year — Shenandoah, Ballymore, Whale and Salamanca — have together averaged roughly 191,000 bpd since coming online, led by Shenandoah at 70,000 bpd. The EIA expects four additional, smaller Gulf projects to begin production by the end of 2026. Separately, the agency projects Brent will average $91 per barrel in 2026 and $74 in 2027, and forecasts U.S. crude output will rise by another 500,000 bpd over that interval.