Fewer than half of California voters back billionaire tax: Poll

A recent UC Berkeley–POLITICO survey finds California's proposed 5% tax on the net worth of the state's roughly 200 billionaires losing momentum. The poll, conducted Sept. 8-14 with 2,418 respondents and a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points, reports 45% of registered voters in favor of Proposition 40, 43% opposed and 12% undecided. That marks a decline in support from an earlier UC Berkeley–POLITICO poll in February, which showed 50% backing and 28% opposition.

Poll co-director Jack Citrin said the trend is moving against the measure, noting historically such shifts can indicate the opposition gaining ground. Despite the drop among all registered voters, the poll found undecided likely voters lean heavily for the measure: 65% of those undecided but likely to vote said they are more inclined to support Proposition 40, while 15% said they would not.

Awareness of the measure is high among likely voters; 83% reported having heard some or a great deal about Proposition 40. That exposure comes amid a high-profile campaign: opponents began running their first ad against the measure last month and have received major financial backing, including more than $100 million from Google co-founder Sergey Brin to PACs opposing the tax. Governor Gavin Newsom is also a prominent opponent and has advocated instead for a national billionaire tax.

Backers of the measure include unions and progressive lawmakers. The Service Employees International Union United Healthcare Workers West (SEIU-UHW) is among its most visible supporters and has said revenues would be directed toward state healthcare programs for middle- and lower-income residents. Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Ro Khanna are also supporters, and the California Democratic Party voted narrowly to endorse the measure last month.