How Canadians are bracing for the impact of Trump’s trade war
Shoppers and researchers say a buy-Canadian movement has strengthened in response to rising tensions with the United States and new tariffs, with some consumers switching brands and retailers marking domestic goods. Economists warn the direct effect on grocery prices is small so far, but higher costs for packaging and delayed price pass-through could push some increases onto households and strain business margins.
Why It Matters
The story matters because a durable shift toward Canadian-made goods could blunt some impacts of the trade dispute while rising tariffs and retaliatory measures risk passing costs to consumers and businesses, potentially affecting prices and employment.
Key Facts
- location: Downtown Toronto, No Frills grocery store
- consumer-example: Mateus Gujrel, a software developer, switched almond milk brands and stopped buying LaCroix in favour of Canadian alternatives
- buy-local-trend-duration: Narrative Research has tracked Canadian attitudes toward domestic buying for roughly a year and a half
- us-threat: U.S. threatened 50% tariffs on nearly $20bn of Canadian products
- canada-response: Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15–50% on roughly $20bn of U.S. imports
Red maple leaf stickers and other markers are appearing on grocery shelves in Canada as shoppers look for domestically produced items amid escalating trade tensions with the United States. At a downtown Toronto No Frills, customers such as Mateus Gujrel say they have changed buying habits — swapping brands and avoiding some U.S. products — as part of a broader movement to keep spending inside Canada. Market research firms and retail analysts say that preference for Canadian goods is more than a short-lived reaction. Narrative Research’s chief operating officer Margaret Chapman told Al Jazeera her company has been following Canadian consumers for about 18 months and finds the inclination to buy local remains strong and persistent. In one survey cited by Narrative Research, 76% of respondents chose a hypothetical basket of all-Canadian groceries priced at 120 Canadian dollars over a cheaper alternative; even when the Canadian basket was raised to 140 Canadian dollars, 70% still preferred it. Economists caution, however, that the immediate effect on retail prices may be modest. Oxford Economics estimates the newly targeted tariffs directly affect only about 0.25% of the average consumer basket because many hit intermediate goods used by businesses rather than finished products on store shelves. Still, tariffs on packaging materials such as metal cans, glass containers and plastic films mean some consumer goods could grow costlier indirectly, and retailers selling pre-tariff inventory may not show price changes until weeks later. Analysts say the initial financial burden will fall more heavily on businesses, with Oxford Economics estimating firms will absorb at least half the cost of counter-tariffs while households will pick up about 20% through higher prices. Retail analyst Bruce Winder warned there is a limit to how long merchants can soak up added costs, and he expects some shelf prices to rise in the coming weeks. Beyond immediate pricing, experts note the trade dispute is also creating consumer unease about potential job losses and broader economic impacts.
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