Is Ethiopia on the verge of another civil war as fighting erupts in Tigray?

Renewed fighting between Ethiopia’s federal army and forces from Tigray has intensified following the announcement of a new umbrella alliance of seven armed movements that aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. The coalition, calling itself the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, brings together groups from across the country, including the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army, as well as movements from Somali, Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz areas. The alliance represents a striking realignment of wartime loyalties: fighters from Amhara who previously fought alongside federal forces against the TPLF are now in the same coalition as Tigrayan forces. Despite the common objective of opposing the federal government, member groups retain competing claims—most notably over western Tigray, where Amhara fighters took control during the 2020–2022 war and where hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans were driven from their homes. Observers say that key elements of the Pretoria agreement of November 2022 were never fully implemented, leaving several contentious issues unresolved. The federal government accuses Tigrayan forces of holding on to weapons they were supposed to surrender, while Tigrayan leaders say the government has not secured the withdrawal of outside forces or allowed displaced people to return, particularly to western Tigray. Earlier this year, a TPLF faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael displaced the interim administration established under the peace deal and retook regional control. Clashes and reported drone strikes escalated into heavier fighting this week, spreading beyond Tigray into neighbouring Afar and Amhara regions. Both sides have blamed the other for initiating the latest offensive, and independent verification of individual attack claims and territorial changes is limited amid ongoing combat. The federal government has also accused Eritrea of supporting the new alliance; Eritrea has repeatedly denied those allegations. Analysts warn the coalition’s formation and the return of large-scale hostilities risk undoing nearly four years of fragile recovery after the 2020–2022 war, which killed hundreds of thousands and displaced millions. With major actors now aligned against Addis Ababa and longstanding disputes—especially over territory and regional autonomy—still unresolved, the situation remains volatile and could further destabilise Ethiopia if fighting continues to expand.