Jeff Currie Sees $5 Gasoline Before Midterms

Diesel hit a record national average of $6.0556 per gallon, AAA reported, marking a sharp monthly rise and a large year-over-year increase. At the same time, Real Macro founder and CEO Jeff Currie, who previously led Goldman Sachs’ commodities research desk for more than a decade, told Bloomberg he sees the chances of U.S. regular gasoline averaging $5 per gallon before the November midterm elections as extremely high.

Currie attributes the squeeze to limited refinery flexibility and longer-term underinvestment in physical supply. Refineries can shift output between products such as gasoline and diesel to chase margins, but Currie says that ability has constraints and the market is nearing them. He told broadcasters diesel could surge further — to as much as $7 to $9 per gallon — before the bottleneck relaxes.

Crude markets have amplified the pressure on refined fuels. Brent crude moved above $107 a barrel this week and nearly touched $110 overnight before falling back to about $103 by Friday morning, following a warning from the International Energy Agency that rising fuel costs could curb demand. Prices have been driven higher this year by disruptions including tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a Houthi claim of a strike on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, which is a key route for shipping crude around the Red Sea.

Analysts and industry sources say the pain is spreading beyond retail pumps. GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan warned that record diesel prices will affect cargoes, shipments and deliveries nationwide and could make the holiday season more expensive if geopolitical strains persist. RBC Capital Markets’ Helima Croft noted that a broader Saudi–Houthi conflict could be a trigger for an even higher oil-price scenario. The coverage and commentary above were drawn from reporting on market moves and expert remarks published by OilPrice.com and interviews cited from Bloomberg and CNBC.