Leaked EU Draft Would Scrap Hydrogen Mandates for EU-Wide Target

A leaked European Commission impact assessment for RED IV signals a notable policy pivot on renewable fuels after 2030. The draft’s preferred package would remove binding national hydrogen mandates and instead set an indicative EU-level renewable hydrogen consumption target of 8 million tonnes aimed at industry and refineries. The document frames that figure as an “average optimal level” for the policy period and foresees hydrogen credits and downstream demand incentives that would need to be introduced via other legislation.

Under the current RED III framework, demand has been anchored by national obligations, including a 1% RFNBOs target in transport by 2030 and RFNBO shares of 42% for industry by 2030 and 60% by 2035. Rystad Energy’s base case projects total EU green hydrogen demand of about 9.5 million tonnes by 2040; industry observers have interpreted the 8 million-tonne figure in the draft as roughly equivalent to annual consumption by that year. Rystad’s hydrogen researcher Frederick Andre Wessel warns that removing binding national targets could add policy uncertainty at a time when projects need long-term demand clarity to reach final investment decisions, and that flexibility may concentrate production in lower-cost regions or risk fragmented, pocketed markets if demand signals remain strong only in a few member states.

On biofuels the draft moves in a more supportive direction, reflecting a heightened focus on energy security. It proposes a common 7% EU ceiling for crop-based biofuels, which the assessment says would raise eligible conventional biofuel volumes by about 30% compared with the 2020 basis used in the analysis. The draft would also give preferential treatment to advanced biofuels derived from EU-sourced feedstocks through multipliers, and tighter certification rules could curb some imported fuels and feedstocks—potentially improving the competitive position of domestic producers. The assessment notes the EU imported around 1.8 million tonnes of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) last year and that more than half of its sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supply was imported.

Overall, the leaked draft points to divergent effects across renewable fuels: a possible loss of long-term binding demand certainty for hydrogen, but strengthened support for biofuels tied to European feedstocks. All measures in the working document remain subject to change before the Commission publishes its formal proposal, leaving key details about delivery mechanisms and legal implementation unresolved.