Middle East Oil Exports Stage a Remarkable Comeback
Crude oil exports from the Middle East rose in September to their highest level since the Iran war began, according to shipping and market-data analysis, signaling a recovery in flows despite continued Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. However, refinery outages and capacity losses have kept diesel supplies tight, contributing to record pump prices in the EU and surging prices in the United States.
Why It Matters
The rebound in Middle Eastern crude shipments eases some supply fears for global oil markets, but persistent refinery disruptions mean downstream fuel shortages and high diesel prices may continue, affecting transport and industrial sectors worldwide.
Key Facts
- September Middle East crude exports: Highest level since the war with Iran began (analysis of shipping and commodity market data)
- JP Morgan assessment: September exports at 98% of pre-war levels
- Kpler on Saudi exports: Saudi oil exports at average levels for 2025
- Windward on Saudi loading: Saudi terminals loaded four times more oil than in August, but ~40% lower than January
- IEA on refining capacity: As much as 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity has been unavailable since the conflict began
Industry observers tracking tanker movements and commodity-market data report that crude exports from the Middle East climbed in September to their highest point since the war with Iran started. Data from Lloyd's List and other analytics firms show a steady increase in tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz from mid-July onward, reversing a sharp fall tied to the collapse of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding earlier in the conflict. JP Morgan described September flows as 98% of pre-war levels, calling it a notable recovery for a region still at war.
Analysts point to several practical workarounds that have supported the revival in flows. Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, use of ship-to-ship transfers and shuttle vessels that follow a protected route along the Omani coast, and continued loading at ports such as Yanbu and Fujairah have all helped maintain shipments. Although the East-West pipeline was damaged in a September 10 Houthi attack, later increases in Yanbu shipments indicate some restoration of capacity. The UAE has likewise leaned on its pipeline to Fujairah to route crude via the Gulf of Oman.
The shipping risks have not ended: three Liberian-flagged tankers were struck by unknown projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on September 30, underscoring ongoing hazards. Industry sources say the market has effectively priced those risks, with some operators willing to accept higher exposures to keep cargoes moving. Indian refiners have also been reported commissioning tankers to use these routes directly.
Despite the recovery in crude exports, downstream problems persist. The International Energy Agency says refinery outages in the Persian Gulf, damage from Iranian strikes and disruption to Hormuz shipping have removed as much as 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity since the conflict began. That shortfall, together with attacks on refineries in Ukraine and Russia's diesel export ban, has tightened global diesel markets and contributed to record diesel pump prices in the European Union and sharp price rises in the United States.