‘My children did not attack Iran’: 2bn South Asians suffer from distant war

The expanding conflict in the Middle East has intensified energy and supply-chain pressures across South Asia, affecting an estimated two billion people in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal. The region entered the crisis already dependent on Gulf energy; the size and character of that exposure differ among the four countries, but all are now registering higher costs and occasional shortages as supply routes tighten.

India faces the largest absolute exposure because it imports about 85% of its crude oil and is the world's third-largest crude importer. Historically, Gulf producers such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait have been important suppliers, with Qatar a major LNG provider, though India also sources crude from Russia, Africa and the Americas. Pakistan likewise relies heavily on imported crude, petroleum products and LNG, and has traditionally sourced oil from Gulf states and LNG from Qatar. Bangladesh, while producing some natural gas domestically, has seen rising dependence on imported LNG and refined products. Nepal does not import crude or LNG directly from the Gulf but depends almost entirely on India for petroleum products, making it vulnerable to pass-through effects if Indian prices or supplies are disrupted.

Household-level accounts illustrate the lived impact. In Karachi, 45-year-old housekeeper Sajida Jibran reports rent rising from 15,000 to 25,000 Pakistani rupees between late last year and this month, electricity bills increasing from around 1,500 to 5,000 rupees, and monthly gas costs of at least 2,000 rupees — factors that forced her to stop paying her children’s school fees in order to feed the family. In Noida, near New Delhi, 67-year-old security guard Balendra Singh describes sending relatives back to his village to reduce city expenses, cutting items from meals and switching to cheaper transport as rickshaw fares rose; when LNG supply was disrupted earlier in the war, he and neighbours resorted to burning wood despite health concerns.

Wider patterns emerging from these accounts point to disproportionate pressure on low-income and vulnerable households across the region. Even where exposure is indirect, as in Nepal, increases in Indian fuel prices and shortages can quickly pass through to local markets. Policymakers in affected countries face the challenge of managing imported energy disruptions while mitigating the social consequences for millions who are financially fragile and dependent on steady supplies of food, fuel and power.