OPEC+ Expected to Keep Oil Production Quotas Unchanged

OPEC+ ministers are widely expected to leave their announced crude output quotas unchanged for November when the group meets this weekend, according to anonymous sources who spoke with Reuters. The producers have been managing a complex balance of stated quota levels and the reality of constrained physical flows after maritime disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz reduced exports from Gulf members. Since early September, the core OPEC+ countries — including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — opted to carry forward the September 2026 required production quotas into October 2026. That decision followed an earlier rollback of 1.65 million bpd of coordinated cuts that had been in place since 2023. Although the alliance has raised nominal production quotas for much of the year, actual shipments to the market have lagged behind those levels because of the Middle East conflict and related threats to shipping routes. The Strait of Hormuz situation has, in effect, left a large portion of Gulf output unable to reach global markets since March, reducing the practical relevance of some quota figures. OPEC+ aggregate production data show some month-to-month volatility: the alliance averaged 38.05 million bpd in August 2026, about 300,000 bpd higher than in July, but overall output remains roughly 5 million bpd below pre-war levels. With near-term quota changes expected to be muted, the group appears to be concentrating on discussions about 2027 baselines and the framework for any future cuts.