Powerful El Nino could cause more than 450,000 deaths, scientists say
A University of Chicago Climate Impact Lab report projects that an unusually strong El Niño could cause more than 450,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide over the next six months, with the period of elevated risk running through February 2027. The study finds developing countries, particularly in Africa's Sahel and parts of Asia and Latin America, are likely to suffer the largest increases in mortality.
Why It Matters
The projection links a major natural climate oscillation, intensified by human-driven warming, to substantial short-term public-health impacts concentrated where temperatures are already high and adaptive resources are limited. That concentration of risk highlights challenges for emergency response, healthcare access, and targeted interventions in lower-income regions.
Key Facts
- Projected excess deaths: More than 450,000 over the next six months (through February 2027) attributed to El Niño-driven heat
- Projected global temperature increase: About 1.2°C rise in global land temperatures compared with a typical year
- Increase in extremely hot days: Extremely hot days expected to be 44% more frequent than in an average year
- Sahel region impact: About 66,800 additional deaths projected across the Sahel
- Top country projections: Nigeria 31,400; Indonesia 19,300; Sudan 17,600 (highest single-country toll: Nigeria)
Researchers at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimate that an unusually strong El Niño, now underway and expected to last through February 2027, could produce more than 450,000 extra heat-related deaths globally in the six-month window they analyzed. The lab compared heat-driven mortality attributable to El Niño with levels expected in a typical year to derive the excess-death figure.
The study projects global land temperatures could rise roughly 1.2°C above typical seasonal levels, and that extremely hot days would become about 44% more frequent. Those shifts, the authors say, will have the most severe mortality consequences in lower-income regions where baseline temperatures are high and adaptive resources are limited.
The Sahel is singled out for particularly large impacts, with the report estimating roughly 66,800 additional deaths across the region. Nigeria is projected to face the largest single-country toll at about 31,400 excess deaths, followed by Indonesia (19,300) and Sudan (17,600). Other countries named in the analysis include India (15,800), Brazil (13,300) and a combined 19,400 extra deaths across the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia.
Lab cofounder Michael Greenstone emphasized that the heat threat is greatest where ambient temperatures and poverty overlap, noting that wealthier places typically have wider access to air conditioning, reliable water and health services that reduce heat risk. Experts also warned that health and infrastructure impacts could outlast the El Niño event itself, carrying consequences into the following summer. Public-health specialists cited gaps in funding and delivery as key barriers to protecting vulnerable populations, even where preparedness plans exist on paper.
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