Qatar’s LNG Loss Revives Projects From Argentina to Timor-Leste

Strikes that damaged production and processing facilities in the shared North Field/South Pars formation have disrupted supplies from both Qatar and Iran, cutting roughly 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity and taking about a third of Iran’s gas capacity offline. The 9,000-square-kilometer formation contains roughly 25% of global gas resources and supplies around 10% of world production, a concentration that market participants say has become an operational vulnerability after the conflict.

Wood Mackenzie estimates Qatar faces near $5.8 billion in repair costs for its gas-processing infrastructure, with full fixes to the damaged liquefaction trains potentially stretching to three years; some recovery timelines were also discussed in terms of up to twelve months. QatarEnergy has delayed the first production unit at the North Field East project into the first half of 2027, and force majeure notices on some contracted supplies were extended into November 2026. The export and shipping restrictions contributed to a 25.8% year-on-year drop in Qatar’s hydrocarbon GDP in Q1 2026 and pulled overall economic growth down 7%.

The supply disruption pushed buyers to the Gastech conference in Bangkok looking for alternatives. Organizers estimated about $60 billion of agreements were announced or moved forward there, including a 20-year sales-and-purchase agreement between China Gas Holdings and U.S. exporter Venture Global LNG for 0.5 million tonnes per annum starting in 2030, and a 35-year production-sharing and gas sales deal in the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area formalized by PETRONAS, PTTEP JDA and the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Authority. The MTJDA gas block covers roughly 3,494 square kilometers and currently produces between 300 to 400 million standard cubic feet per day from fields such as Cakerawala, Bumi and Suriya.

Conference participants also signaled revived interest in greenfield projects in regions looking to fill the gap. Timor-Leste disclosed plans for two new LNG plants — a 5 mtpa facility fed by the Greater Sunrise fields and a 1.5 mtpa plant using remaining Bayu-Undan gas — while buyers and investors showed attention to proposals in Argentina and Tanzania. The deals and project pipeline expansion reflect buyers’ attempts to diversify away from the concentrated Gulf suppliers after the strikes affected both Qatar and Iran, and to lock in longer-term security of supply amid the disruptions.

Energy markets reacted to the geopolitical backdrop and supply moves: oil prices fell sharply on Monday, slipping below $100 per barrel for the first time in two weeks after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating openness to a potential meeting with Iran’s president at the upcoming U.N. General Assembly, scheduled to begin Tuesday. The diplomatic signal, together with the new offtake agreements and project interest from Gastech, framed a market response balancing shorter-term disruption against emerging alternative supplies.