U.S. Diesel Prices on Track for Record Year

Diesel climbed above its previous weekly nominal peak from June 2022 after a 36.8-cent jump, reaching $5.967 per gallon in the national on-highway average for September 7. By contrast, regular gasoline rose 8.6 cents to $4.157 on the same date, still far below its June 2022 weekly high of $5.006. Those differing moves have materially altered the outlook for annual averages in 2026. Using the Energy Information Administration’s weekly retail price observations through September 7, the year-to-date averages come to roughly $4.895 for diesel and $3.772 for regular gasoline. With 16 weekly price observations remaining in 2026, diesel would need to average about $5.20 over those weeks to surpass its 2022 annual nominal record of $4.989; gasoline would need to average about $4.35 to top its 2022 record of $3.951. If prices stayed at the September 7 levels for the rest of the year, diesel would finish near $5.22 — comfortably above the 2022 mark — while gasoline would end the year around $3.89, below its prior record. The drivers behind elevated diesel prices echo some of the forces that pushed costs higher in 2022 but also include product-specific disruptions. In 2022, a tight market before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, low inventories and constrained refining capacity combined with a shock to Russian supply to lift crude and refined-product prices. In 2026, the conflict affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has pressured crude and refined-product flows globally, and damage to refineries and redirected exports have tightened diesel and distillate availability. U.S. distillate inventories stood near 104.2 million barrels with East Coast stocks about 19.3 million barrels, and Reuters reported the U.S. diesel crack spread exceeded $100 per barrel in August — all signs of a strained distillate market despite refinery utilization running at about 98% in late August. Seasonal patterns also favor diesel staying firm while gasoline faces downward pressure. Gasoline typically eases after the summer driving season as demand falls and refineries switch back to winter-grade blends, making a new annual gasoline record harder to reach. Diesel demand often rises into the fall for harvest and freight movements, providing seasonal support that, combined with tight inventories and global product flows, increases the probability that 2026 will set a new annual nominal average record for diesel even if gasoline does not.