Venezuela’s Oil Comeback Could Cost More Than $100 Billion

The U.S.-backed overhaul of Venezuela’s oil sector has spurred a wave of commercial activity after authorities ousted Russian and Chinese operators from previously awarded concessions. That shift has led to new agreements with a range of players, from established majors and global oilfield service firms to lesser-known entrants, all positioning to raise output and export crude, in large part to the United States. One of the highest-profile transactions announced by the White House involves privately held North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), which received 100-year rights to 17 fields containing roughly 65 billion barrels of proven reserves. NABEP has cited an ambition to rapidly scale operations in Lake Maracaibo and the Orinoco Belt and signaled a long-term funding need of about $100 billion for new infrastructure, a figure Rystad Energy described as a future financing requirement rather than committed near-term capital. Other recent deals include Chevron’s pledge of over $7 billion in investment across five years and a reported production increase in Venezuela to roughly 600,000 bpd. Continental Resources signed a memorandum of understanding with state oil firm PDVSA to develop the Ayacucho 2 block in the Orinoco Belt, which is estimated to hold about 30 billion barrels of resource in place. Italy’s Eni agreed to operate the Junín-5 field, a heavy-oil asset with 35 billion barrels in place that currently yields around 12,000 bpd. Major service companies such as Halliburton and SLB have also struck contracts to support development and reactivate rigs. Analysts caution that Venezuela’s resource endowment does not erase the legacy of decades of underinvestment and deterioration of production infrastructure. As of August, the country had only two active drilling rigs, according to Baker Hughes data; Rystad Energy estimates that achieving 1.6 million bpd by 2028 would require roughly 50 rigs, and reaching 1.8 million bpd by 2030 would necessitate nearly 80 rigs. Restoring output will first rely on restarting mothballed projects and boosting existing field performance, but substantial additional capital will be needed to repair facilities, pipelines and build new processing capacity, with greenfield development adding more time and cost to any full recovery.