Analysts Cut China's Q4 Crude Import Forecasts by 400,000 Bpd
Analysts from FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects have trimmed their fourth-quarter forecasts for China's crude oil imports by about 400,000 barrels per day, citing a renewed rally in oil prices above $100 per barrel and tighter availability of cheaper barrels such as Iranian crude. The consultancies now expect Q4 imports of roughly 9.2–9.3 million bpd, well below last year’s average of 11.6 million bpd.
Why It Matters
The downgrade signals weaker-than-anticipated demand or purchasing activity from the world's largest oil importer, which could influence global crude flows and pricing as buyers revisit procurement plans amid higher costs and constrained supply sources. Reduced imports from China would matter for exporters that had been supplying discounted barrels to Chinese independent refiners.
Key Facts
- Forecast cut: About 400,000 barrels per day reduction to China's Q4 crude import forecasts
- New Q4 import forecast: 9.2–9.3 million barrels per day
- Last year's average: 11.6 million barrels per day
- August imports YoY: 23.4% lower compared with August last year
- June low: Imports fell to 7.1 million barrels per day in June
Analysts at FGE NexantECA and Energy Aspects have lowered their projections for China’s crude oil imports in the fourth quarter by roughly 400,000 barrels per day. The consultancies now expect imports of about 9.2–9.3 million bpd for Q4, a notable step down from last year’s average of 11.6 million bpd.
The revisions follow a renewed jump in global oil prices, with Brent rising back above $100 per barrel in early September. That price rebound, coupled with elevated freight costs and the near-disappearance of cheaper Iranian supplies, has reduced the incentive for Chinese buyers — especially independent refiners known as teapots — to increase crude purchases.
China’s imports had been recovering from the June trough, when crude inflows dropped to a decade low of 7.1 million bpd. August recorded a second consecutive month of growth versus July, though volumes remained 23.4% below August of the previous year. September arrivals are expected to be roughly on par with August, but analysts say the outlook for the remainder of the year has weakened as higher prices make additional purchases less attractive.
Samuel Kong, senior oil analyst at FGE NexantECA, told Bloomberg that hefty premiums and expensive freight are eroding refiners’ margins and limiting upside to imports. With U.S. policy effectively curbing flows of Venezuelan and Iranian barrels that had supplied lower-cost crude, independent processors may scale back refinery runs rather than buying more expensive feedstock. State-owned refiners, meanwhile, are not expected to rush into large purchases at current price and freight levels.