Bitcoin Rally Cools, But a Golden Cross Is Coming

Bitcoin reversed some of last week's momentum on Tuesday, retreating to $77,323 after a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index for August reignited inflation concerns. The selloff weighed on broader risk assets too: the S&P 500 fell 0.59% and the Nasdaq dropped nearly 1%, and roughly 85% of the top 100 crypto assets by market cap were lower over the past 24 hours. Rising oil prices amid U.S.-Iran tensions and a spike in Treasury yields to multi-year highs added to the pressure.

On the technical front, the recent pullback sits against a still-constructive multi-week picture. Bitcoin remains well above its August lows near $64,000, and momentum measures point to an active uptrend: the Average Directional Index is at 45.8, above the 25 threshold traders often use to confirm a trend, while the Relative Strength Index reads 55.6, indicating room to run without being overbought. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows volatility compression, which can precede a larger directional move.

The most notable setup on the chart is the near-term convergence of the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. If the shorter average crosses above the longer one, a golden cross will be confirmed — the first such signal since the death cross in November 2025 — with models projecting confirmation around September 11 if price action holds. Traders view a golden cross as a bullish sign, but it is a lagging indicator and has historically sometimes reversed within weeks of forming.

Fund flows underline continued institutional interest: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged $3.8 billion in net inflows over the past three weeks, bringing total net assets to $101.3 billion and marking their strongest run of 2026. That demand may provide support even as macro risks loom. Markets are now bracing for a fresh round of volatility ahead of Friday's Consumer Price Index print and the Federal Reserve's September 15 meeting, events that are likely to dictate Bitcoin's next major move.